So this weekend was the G Cup team event down at the G. I was playing, for the last time, for Team Ninja.
I'm not really going to review the event too much, other than to pick out a couple of interesting hands and how I reacted and such. Starting with 7500 and a 40 minute clock, let's jump right in.
Early doors I three bet A8s against perceived weakness and take a nice multiway pot down on an Ahigh board. I then play some suited connectors in position, make a loose (advertising) snapcall with King High vs Mrmagoogle in a small pot and I'm on about 8500 when I open QQ UTG to 225 UTG at 50/100 and get flatted by both the CO (relatively spazzy, prolly flatting ATPrettyC because of tight BTN and my LAGtard image) and the BTN (tighest player at table, confused by the coldcall) before Nemesis (my team, captain, capable of squeezing wide) makes it 625. I'm getting prepared to 4bet before Alison (mrsfatfish, playing real good and TAGgy) pops it to 1625. I tank fold. Nemesis flashes the As as he folds and Alison mucks. I think she prolly shows a bluff so I think good fold. I also don't think she 4bets AK out of position. With AA she probably flats and hopes I shove. I guess I ran into the other two Queens (nice bet) or KK (nice hand and nice bet) or the Azbo (super bet, and I'm never ahead). There's always a chance she has AA though. A friend of mine says that however weirdly the hand plays out, there is always an 8% chance that they have AA. A maxim I live by!
I claim I folded JJ as I just don't think folding QQ suits my laggy image at this table.
Anyway, a little later I open T8s in late position, flop 2 pair on a drawy board, bet three streets and get raised on the end by mrmagoogle. I sigh, wonder if he waits till the river to raise a straight or set on a 2 heart board but decide he doesn't, call and my top2 is good for a nice pot.
I'm up to about 13000 when the crucial hand occurs. Simmy3k has just moved to our table and joined the tournament. I know him to be LAGgy as hell and capable of all sorts of moves. His third hand in, he makes it 550 at 75/150 in the hijack and I flat the button with 22. Now a reasonably tight player in the BB Pam overcalls for value. As she does this, I turn to Simmy and announce 'great, I need the pot to be multiway for my hand' and he says 'pfft, I just wanted it heads up'. There's 1725 in the pot and we see the flop:
4c 5c 9x
BB checks (I don't think she check-raises a lot at all, so suspect there's a check-fold coming, or, if she has a draw, maybe a check-call) and Simmy obv cbets 850 pretty fast. I think raising here is the best line because:
1. I likely have the best hand as that board doesn't hit Simmy's range that much.
2. I need to protect my hand, and as an added bonus, price out the BB if they're on a draw.
3. I can represent a set or a huge draw given my speech about 'needing the pot to be multiway'.
4. Simmy doesn't know I've been laggy so a raise reps a pretty narrow range, I think.
5. If I get flat called I can reevaluate on the turn. So yeah, I'm raising for value and for information.
Anyway, you may disagree, please let me know in the comments if you do, but I make it 2300. This makes the total pot 4875, and Simmy has to put 1450 more in. Given that he started the hand with 7500, he'll have almost half his stack in if he flats.
He tanks. For a looooonnng time. About 5 minutes. In the end, he looks resigned and just slides his chips over the line. All 6950 of them (including the 850). So, the pot is 10975 and I have to call another 4650 from my ~11k remaining stack. Let's consider his range:
1. He doesn't have sets or twopair, like, ever, because he jams quicker. Like instaquick. I don't think he was acting, he was genuinely trying to decide how to play his hand facing a raise.
2. For the same reason, I rule QQ+ almost all of the time and TT/JJ lots of the time (i think he flats and reevaluates those hands, and moves in with QQ+ quicker).
3. He has 66,77,88 here a fair amount of the time, I think. Maybe 20% of the time he turns up with one of those hands.
3. He has clubs here, a lot, I think. Like wider than AcXc and including like KcXc, QcJc, maybe even wider, I think (given the image I have of him). Obviously when he has clubs -- I have the 2c, kindofa blocker ;) -- he also has two overs, which is basically a flip. Given the money in the middle (remember, 4650 more into almost 11k) I make the auto call for how often he has just clubs.
He shows KK. Ooops. No help for me and down to like 6k or so.
I then play really badly, don't adjust to my new stacksize and finally shove 4200 over Simmys open with A9s and he has KK, again.
Thoughts on the key hand?
As a test: If you were shown AKcc by simmy when he moved in, and you'd still fold, you're wrong. A couple of people said that too me at the break. I haven't heard a convincing argument for why I should fold here (when shown 2overs and FD) yet, so I'll continue to assume it would be optimal to call.
Anyway, comments appreciated and well done to Dobba Knights for the record and to all who played. Well done to Dan Trett for being more hungover than me and for tempting me pre-tourney with Nandos, too.
Editing blogpost title given comments.
Australian Poker Tour March 2021
3 years ago
15 comments:
do as much maths as you like but I simply dont understand the 22 hand call to his ship but thanks anyway
What don't you understand about it?
I've heard a lot that people 'don't get it' or 'think it's terrible' which is fine, as long as people can tell me why they think that...
I believe it's arguably the correct call in terms of getting the odds of 2-1 against my range (Or the range you percieve me to have :P). However, the cards infront of us and the money in the middle arn't the only variables we need to take into account. I think there are a few more points that also effect our decision to call or not here.
1. The guy you are up against has a Laggy image, but is a good player :P. He's not going to jump into every tournament he plays and play muchos Lagtard style vs the table chip leader within his 1st 3 hands 100% of the time.
2. It is a slow structured tournament with tons and tons of play. You can fold and still have ~133%+ of the chip average. fuck the hand. you think you are 1 of the better players so why risk so many of your hard earned chips so early?
3. The Legendary opponent is playing for a team in a relatively highly thought of tourney (ie. prolly dosn't want to get owned on the forum for shoving light so early in the tournament or let his team down)
4. The 2-1 calling thing isn't really relative to anything you need to put it in perspective... it's a chance to be on 18k or 6k or resign and stick with 10.5k. I know what i'd take if i think i'm 40%(at best) to win the hand in this type of tourney...
Once you take these elements of the hand into consideration I think it's a very easy fold. Having said that, it's always easy to give advise after you win the hand :P It could very easily be a very different story.
just as a side note... I think my tank shove pretty much defines the hand I had pretty much perfectly for you. Would I tank shove a set? no. Would I tank shove an Ace high Flush draw if that was going to be my line? no. Would I tank shove a big big pair or bottom 2? i think so.
To be honest, I thought the following things:
1. Simmy is aggro laggy (like me today, but not usually) and will probably be taking the same line I am. Pushing the 'i don't want to let the team down' people out of pots for being too tight.
2. I, incorrectly, thought that you'd have banged a big pair in quicker. As I said at the time, the tankshove really confused me. I don't think you do that a whole lot with a big pair, and certainly not in a standard tournament. At least, I don't think you do...?
It's important for me to decide whether I made the correct call, and found the top of your range drawing pretty sliiiiim, or if I assigned you entirely the wrong range. Whatever the maths, if I'm rarely flipping or ahead then it's a bad call.
To be honest, I found the table pretty easy going, I didn't need to get into the pot with you, but I always play to win. Even in a team game. That might be a leak, I accept.
Additionally, with the length of the tank, I didn't ever think that you had a big pair. Certainly not very often as for it to be negligible. Meh.
I have more to say on this, but I'll jump back in after I've done some actual work.
Wp Simmy for getting me to get my money in drawing to 4% for a 2xaverage+ pot. You play good sir ;)
perfectly explained by Simmy tbh, cant add anymore
I should add, by the way, that I'm not too unhappy with the play.
What I'm more annoyed about, and what I haven't discussed here, is how terribly I reacted to losing that pot.
As mrmagoogle said to me "that's the worst I've ever seen you play. actually terrible" and he was totally right.
I didn't adjust my opening ranges, 3bet ranges, etc etc and I still tried to bluff a lot (thanks for 'getting there on the river again' with your QJo vs my T-high, Simmy!) when the circumstances dictated it.
I do want to know though, Simmy, if you don't mind: Were you acting or did you think I had a set and crushing you or flushdraw and were considering just calling and re-eval the turn? Obviously with my hand I can never really bet most turns, but just wondering...
oh, and another question:
if the roles are reversed, and I show you AKcc when I shove, do you call? I think you probably have to given the pot odds, so the question then really distills thusly:
what percentage of your range is flushdraws+overs and what percentage has me crushed?
I'm going to work it out all mathsy like and determine where the inflection points in your range are to make my call profitable....standby!
ok, ignoring the 'it's a team game factor, and assuming you never bluff' you have to be getting it in with a flushdraw approx half the time (51%) for my call to be profitable.
Maaaaaaarginnnnnall.
OK i'll just go through my full thoughts on the hand from my POV. perhaps then you'll see why it was a weird quasi tank shove...
When i sat down late to the tournament I had only been awake about an hour. i just found out it was a deep/slow game and as I had rushed about trying to get ready and get to the G, I had no strategy plans. I'm not sure i'm standard or not but it always takes me at least 6 cycles to feel good at the felt to really feel comfortable in my game and have a good understanding of table dynamics. Because of this I had decided (pretty much as soon as I sat down) that I wouldn't make any assumptions how to play the tourney or the table until I had got use to the flow of the game. I thought 'If i have starting stack in another hour i'll be happy'.
On my 3rd hand I get KK, i'm not looking to play a big macho 'let's see who can out-play the other guy game' which i get involved in very often with NPFers. So i'm dissapointed to see you come a long, as I DO NOT WANT to be re-raised when I c-bet on the flop (I'm guessing a lot of players would).
So anyway (allready predicting what's going to happen). the flop comes 459cc BB checks. I c-bet almost pot and you raise it up 3x, BB folds and it's on me.
In my head 'you didn't want to be involved so early' 'Have you over-compensated for thinking you might play too tight' 'He said he wants a multi-way pot meaning he probs has a small pair, he might have a set' 'Why would he bluff raise me when he knows I know he is so laggy' 'I havn't even met my team yet and this could be my exit hand' etc etc. I havn't settled yet, and thus it takes a longer time than usual to confirm the 'obvious' correct play, which is defski to shove in. I remember my last thought was 'I hope dc agrees with me that i've been so unlucky against this set-miner'.
As soon as you dont insta call I turn to dc behind me and announce to him i'm all in, I know i'm safe...
Mebs if you had insta called with a set I would have left the casino silently :P
In regards to a range of hands i could have it's difficult to say. Because on this specific occasion my range is completly different from the image you (or most people, sigh) have of me. You know what a lagtard's range is,so put that through your calculations if you want to think it was a good call :P. Otherwise think about how I felt sitting down at the tourney on this occasion and you'll realise that your odds are actually much closer to our showdown %.
It's actually a really good lesson we can all take away from this, which is, don't label players as LAG, capable of making moves etc indefinitely. Because most people's games change drastically dependent on so many factors.
Hope this sheds light on the hand for you. Can't wait for our next encounter :D. gg wp ul. YES REMEMBERED IT.
I wish I could quote this....
"It's actually a really good lesson we can all take away from this, which is, don't label players as LAG, capable of making moves etc indefinitely. Because most people's games change drastically dependent on so many factors"
Excellent point. And obviously, had you been at the table for 5 orbits and not opened a pot, then things would be different. I think it's pretty clear that I was too quick to assume that you were gonna be playing like 'Simmy FUCKING 3k', rather than just Simmy.
On that basis alone it was a shocking call. Against your normal range it's a snap though! :p
One final question. Why did you do an impression of a cowboy when I threebet shoved with A9s? 'Aaaahhh caaaaaaaalllll' :p
was playing red dead redemption for ~8 hours late friday, early saturday... obvs rubbed off on me. :D
actually kq4eva here.
v intersting to see both sides of thought process in what was a key hand, but in truth imo should have been a set mine fold to c bet hand - too early to play a huge pot with a very marginal holding. U can out think yourself and make the maths work for u in a situation whee u feel u want to call - thats a situation we all find ourselves in - inventing best case scenarios to help us find a call (which occasionally, but rarely is right) - his pushing range only contains the AK cc which we are in good shape against and all else even under pairs to the 9 you are too far ahead to justify the call with 2 cards to come. Simple angle is we have a small one pair hand so we should play small pot, we make our set as u can see we get paid for our big pot hand - but without it, just lose your small investment and move on. if your insistent on your raise for info becuase u could be ahead, then when your told - no your behind I think u can fold and play on with above average stack and may even coax simmy to show u and boost your confidence in your good laydown - mental game intact if not even on the up from a good fold rather than a bad call.
The dynamics of tournament poker mean that mathematically correct plays are not always right if the outcome if undesirable effcts our whole game - your call was a crying one - i saw it looking over - u prob felt behind despite your internal justification and logic.
you don't even raise on the flop Andy? when we still likely have the best hand?
I didn't like the call Andy, because I didn't expect to get shoved on after the whole time he was tanking I was convinced he had a draw so I guess I made a crying call realising that he might not be on a draw but that the pot justified the call (based on the range I gave him, which we subsq see is incorrect) and the odds I was being laid.
Additionally Andy, would you call if he *showed you* the AXcc? I haven't heard a single good argument (from a few people) as to why a fold in that case would be correct. I'd be interested in your thoughts.
As far as the mental side of the game goes, I know I can suffer from analysis paralysis and fancy play syndrome. For sure. But fuck me, had I been right and he'd shown a draw (which then bricks) I'd have been unstoppable mate. Nobody would have got close to me for the rest of the tournament. Sometimes knowing how I can play when I have a large stack gathered from 'sickgood reads' (obv not in this case, sigh) makes me take slightly more marginal spots (like snapping with TT on a AQK board annoucning 'nines no good' etc) because I think I'm a buzz player. If I'm buzzing I can be unplayable. As it happens, whilst being a huge strength it is also a huge leak in other spots, and is prolly not optimal. Working on it, but sometimes I spazz out.
I hope that doesn't make me sound too arrogant. Not my intention.
KQ$EVA again
No I dont raise flop - because this creates that big pot which I rarley want to play with such a weak holding. I know none of the board hits his range arguably and he could have air, but its expensive to find this out and the next hands just a fold away. I play this small a pair purely for set, and maybe try and take the pot if weakness shown on flop and or turn.
If I Know 100% he has AK cc yes I call - In this scenario he is marginal favourite to win by showdown, but we are getting 2:1 - however I only say that because knowing it was right mathematically is good enough for me to accept the actual result whatever that may be, and I would actually feel pretty good about the call even if he gets there. However you have in your scenario to be right about his actual holding and also hold up and or feel good about the outcome and it is asking too much I feel.
I like how u think about your own strengths and your meta game, and dont let anyone say its wrong to play instintively and on good reads, but also consider softer spots, easier ways to make chips etc etc - hero calling reading isnt the bread and butter - its awesome when it works of course but it should be combined with solid ABC taking chips from weak spots and not the full basis of your game IMO.
Steve Brennan an I were on same table for a good part of the day and both pretty heavily stacked and we both avoided some spots against one another not becuase we were team mates but because as he put it there are so many softer spots on this table to pick up chips that its not worth getting involved with players who are going to give me tough decisions.
I am often outplayed and allow it to happen at times, because the risk of getting it wrong is sometimes not worth the gain from being right - soemtimes this cant be measured in pure chips. Donr let ego rule your game.
That doesnt make me a pushover and there are times i feel so strongly in my read I will go with it - granted not always right of course.
This all said some games I am absolutely trying to get into spots with opponenets I respect and whom I enjoy confronting and posing problems to, as much as solving problems they pose me - If its purely about accumulation and winning though - this isnt the way to go.
Hey Marc. Interesting hand vs. Simmy, FWIW I wouldn’t be looking to raise the flop for information or value;
Fold > Call > Raise
If I’m honest I’m likely folding like 80% of the time for reason’s explained by Andy Blair. Calling here is fine some of the time because like you say Pam is check/folding like 95% of the time and you’ll be heads up in position for fourth & fifth street. Calling allows;
You to see how villain reacts on turn
Scope to represent straight/flush draws
If 22 is good and Simmy was CBETing he’ll likely slow down like 75% of the time which gives you the opportunity to get to showdown for cheap with your marginal showdown value hand as well as two more streets to find a set. If he continues his AGGRO line I think you can safely narrow his range to QQ+ and either give up on the turn still with 11,600 or alternatively look to float and bluff at straight/flush cards hitting the river. Bluffing the scary river is high variance (requiring either an over bet or an all in raise if Simmy leads) and I don’t think Simmy folds enough to make it optimal, I likely fold the turn satisfied he’s got me crushed.
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